The elections of 2020 were a pivotal moment in recent American history. With the nation politically polarized and the Covid-19 virus wreaking havoc on the country’s citizens and economy, the 2020 elections were a watershed moment in the direction of the United States moving forward.
While the results can be viewed as a referendum on Donald Trump’s performance as President since winning in 2016, the Congressional results were far from decisive. The 50/50 split in the Senate, especially, highlights the tenuous grasp on power held by the Democrats, despite ousting Trump as President and maintaining a slight majority in the House.
Now after nearly a year since November 3, 2020, America’s politicians have begun to look ahead to the Midterm Elections of 2022. And the stakes couldn’t be higher.
The 2022 Midterm Elections will be held on November 8th and will determine which party controls dozens of Senate seats. For Republicans, reclaiming a Senate majority is the key to neutralizing the power held by Democrats through their positions in the Executive Branch and the House. For Democrats, their entire agenda relies on staving Republicans off.
“Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 20 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.“
One particularly interesting race to watch will be in Georgia for the seat currently held by Democrat Raphael Warnock. Warnock won a special election in 2020 and was one half of the unanticipated upset Georgia Republicans suffered in 2020, losing both Senate seats to Democrats. If Warnock is unable to hold this seat, the momentum may indeed be swinging back in Republicans’ favor after the first two years of the Biden Presidency.
One election forecaster, Race to the WH, however, believes that Democrats will be able to keep their current majorities secure.
After running over 50,000 simulations of potential outcomes of the upcoming Midterms, Race to the WH projects the following:
Democrats will secure 50.43 seats, Republicans 49.6 seats
Democrats are most likely to see favorable changes in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, Illinois, and Colorado
Republicans are most likely to see favorable changes in Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Kentucky, and Indiana
The most competitive states will likely be Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
Race to the WH, who accurately predicted the general outcomes of which party would win the House, Senate, and Presidency in 2020, once again believe Democrats will come out on top. However, these razor thin margins prove that the election is essentially a toss-up. America is a nation divided, with neither party being able to sway an overwhelming majority of the public. The upcoming 12 months will be critical for both parties, as control of American politics swings in the balance.