In early January, The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports published the results of their latest joint polling effort. It reads like a stark warning for the Biden Administration: if the 2020 presidential election were conducted again today, Donald Trump would’ve been the uncontested winner.
The poll is just the latest figure on a series of grim predictions for the Democratic Party, especially as we approach a midterm election.
About the Poll
To conduct this poll, the Rasmussen Reports company interviewed over 1,016 likely voters from a randomized sample hailing from all states. Participants included people from both genders and diverse ethnic backgrounds. Although numbers were randomly selected using a computerized tool, the institute ensured to include ZIP codes that would represent people from all socio-economic strata.
These efforts at impartiality only serve to make the results more impressive. Among other findings, the poll showed that:
As of January 5th, 2022, 46% of voters would vote for Trump, while 40% would vote for Biden.
The group that indicated a preference for Donald Trump comprised 14% Democrats, 81% Republicans, and 45% of voters who identified as Independent.
Among Hispanic voters, a group that traditionally leans strongly Democratic, 38% indicated they would vote for Trump now.
Once you account for undecided voters and those who refuse to vote, 52% of people would now hesitate to vote for Joe Biden – even if they did so two years ago.
According to Cristopher Talgo, a political analyst from The Heartland Institute, this was likely the least expected result: “This is astounding, given the fact that the mainstream has given Biden the benefit of the doubt. […] It seems like American voters are experiencing a classic case of voter’s remorse.”
What Is Playing against Biden?
The 2020 election will likely go into history books due to the deep divisions that shaped it and the whirlwind of hostility it caused.
Despite a highly-polarized political landscape, both sides of the political arena have accumulated grievances against the current President. Up to a certain point, it was expected that Biden would find fierce opposition among Republican lawmakers and voters. Yet, even Democrats found themselves disappointed in his performance, as he failed to deliver on many of the promises that brought him to power.
All in all, the first two years of his tenure were marked by:
Backtracking on key election issues, such as COVID-19
The inability to pass controversial legislation, which undermined his political capital
Critical mistakes in the management of foreign policy, especially with regards to Afghanistan and Ukraine.
Worsening of economic conditions for middle-class families.
For the past decade, perhaps the most influential trend in American politics has been increased polarization. People now often define themselves as staunchly liberal or deeply conservative, leaving little room for debate or changes in opinion.
In this sense, Joe Biden’s attempt at pleasing both sides of the conflict may have backfired. Where he attempted conciliation, people perceived weakness. Where he tried to negotiate, voters have seen lobbying. At this time, prospects for a second term look unlikely – although November 2022 will offer more definitive clues.
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