Trump’s desire to run for President again in 2024 could be Washington D.C.’s worst-kept secret. He was open about his desires from the start and has amassed a gigantic amount of campaign funds.
As a result, most political analysts now treat his bid as a certainty. The final piece of the puzzle? He still hasn’t announced his bid officially. And until he does, we can only speculate about his actual chances of winning the nomination.
Will Trump Launch His Campaign Before November 2022?
Traditionally, both major parties prefer to leave the Presidential battle until after the midterms. Even in cases when a candidate seems almost certain to be a contender, it is considered poor form: it can detract attention from the urgent (but less glamorous) work of gaining House and Senate Seats. Besides, being in the race too soon can increase your “burnout time,” creating a visible target for the opposition.
However, Donald Trump has rarely left political tradition standing in his way. One thing is sure: if he does make an official announcement before November, he could create a ground-shaking effect on electoral results.
Unfortunately, the GOP is divided about this effect, as it is not universally hailed as positive.
“The Final Nudge to Guarantee Victory,” Say Some
Many prominent Republicans feel Trump’s campaign would be a bonus, cementing the “red wave” the party is counting on this November. Senator Lindsay Graham has said that “the sooner he gets in and talks about winning the next election, the better.”
Although not all Trump supporters have been as effusive in their encouragement, they have mostly listed the same possible upsides of launching Trump’s campaign without delay. These include:
Mobilizing Pro-Trump Republicans
Donald Trump remains a hugely popular figure in many states, and his “Make America Great Again” campaign has tremendously increased political participation rates. Without these votes, Republicans don’t win.
Already there are signs of the Republican campaign slowing down in the polls. This could make the extra push much more valuable. According to longtime advisor Jim McLaughlin, “nobody turns out conservative voters” better than Trump.
Framing him as a critical figure for the party
For many in the Republican Party, November is already a triumph. If Donald Trump is openly running as a possible Presidential Nominee, he could potentially add this to his list of triumphs.
More importantly, perhaps, this involvement will protect Trump from being sidelined by his party. If the Republicans score a massive win without his help, it may convince some Party Seniors that he is no longer necessary.
“A Dangerous Maneuver” that Could Cost the GOP Its Triumph
Not everyone is as convinced about Trump’s possible early bid. Many of his private advisors – and even some of his strongest supporters, such as Kelly Ann Conway – have warned him about hurting both the party at large and his presidential race.
Why? The two strongest reasons are:
Increasing the centrist antivote
Despite its many die-hard fans, Trump’s brand of Republicanism also creates a lot of skepticism. His presence and rhetoric may spur unaligned centrists and moderate conservatives away from the Republican Party. And while moderates are unlikely to join the Democrat side, the “Trump effect” could increase voter turnout among lukewarm liberals.
Both factors could potentially cost his party a few turnover seats in key battleground states.
Hurt his own political prospects
Even if they come as part of a more significant Republican victory, any minor setback could be easily “blamed” on Donald Trump. Therefore, announcing his candidacy before the midterms could hurt his political capital, and he may end up with none of the credit and all of the blame.
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