We are almost exactly in the middle of the current presidential term. For many analysts, this means it is time to campaign for the country’s eventual 47th President. The Democratic Party will likely play it safe and run Biden for reelection, if at least for continuity. But on the Republican side, predictions remain divided.
The big enigma? Whether Donald Trump will be the G.O.P.’s eventual presidential nominee. Recently, the Party has been experiencing a few power shifts and even the occasional spat among longtime friends. While it may be too soon to have a definite answer, here are three reasons why Trump has an excellent chance of winning the nomination – and two reasons why he may not get it.
3 Reasons why Trump Looks Like a Lock for the 2024 Nomination
During the recent conference of the Midwest Political Science Association, approximately half of all attending experts treated Trump’s eventual nomination as a certainty. They have three powerful reasons to believe this.
1. He wants to run
Current controversies aside, Donald Trump is not hiding his intention to run for the White House again. His voice is still robust when deciding the Party’s internal affairs. Since the beginning of the year, he has kept himself in the spotlight through rallies, frequent public statements, and even by organizing fundraisers.
2. He has a devoted base of voters
Ultimately, nominations come from the grassroots. Behind district division, “super voters,” or the whims of lobby groups, the Republican primaries are decided by mobilized regular voters – and most Republican voters continue to support Trump.
He has established himself as one of the Party’s most recognizable leaders. Other known Conservative figureheads have begun to move against Trump or resent his success, but few do so publicly. The candidates he endorses continue to win, and citizens continue to flock to his rallies.
3. He has proven his policy agenda
During the early 2016 Presidential Campaign, many established factions within the Republican Party were distrustful of his motives and agenda. As he was not a traditional politician, Christian Conservatives and libertarians feared he would not deliver on his initial promises.
There is little reason to doubt his plan now. He changed the composition of the Supreme Court and ensured Roe vs Wade was overturned. He supported law enforcement officers, showed a tough stance on immigration, and threw his influence behind pro-family-values movements.
2 Reasons why Nothing Is Certain Yet
Trump’s path to an eventual nomination seems smooth for now. However, he is not the nominee yet, and some bumps may still appear on the road later on. Currently, two main issues could give him a hard time:
1. His legal problems may get in the way
The Congressional Hearings on January 6th’s events are not over yet. A possible prosecution is still on the table, even if it’s unlikely to succeed.
Meanwhile, other agencies and jurisdictions are also preparing separate cases against him. Most notably, the Department of Justice and the State of New York investigate allegations of “document mishandling.”
For most of his supporters, these cases reek of political persecution. Whether through fair trial or not, one of these cases may stick in two years.
2. His electoral track record is not the best
Finally, there’s the big elephant in the room: Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, which makes him a risky gamble. Once again, his behavior during January 2021 may also cost him dearly, as it may have cost the Republican Party two valuable Senate seats in Georgia.
As popular as he is with a large sector of the Republican electorate, he is also a very controversial figure. Enough liberals, Democrats, and even a few unaffiliated voters dislike him enough to overlook their own reservations about Joe Biden’s performance.
Final Thoughts: 2 Years is a Long Time
In political terms, two years may as well be two decades. In these turbulent times, a lot can happen before the Republican primaries are finalized, so it is impossible to predict a winner with certainty. Back in 2014, Trump’s 2016 nomination sounded like a far-fetched idea – so analysts will have to keep watching for a few more months.
Grassroots Pulsecovers public policy and political issues aimed at engaging highly-active policy makers, donors, and grassroots leaders at the forefront of the political process in America today.
Image Credit:"Donald Trump" by Gage Skidmore is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.